O Earth, in a furnace thou doth rest today,
In a charred state you lie, perishing away…
G-L-O-B-A-L W-AR-M-I-N-G? Many consider the number, thirteen to be inauspicious or unlucky. However, what is probably more unlucky than the number itself is this thirteen lettered word that is leading us to our imminent doom. As humans continue to place our Earth in a furnace we have created for her, we move steps closer to the day when we all shall obliterate our own existence. We shall now delve into this issue that has captured the attention of both, the scientific and the non scientific worlds alike, starting our journey from where it all began, and then reach our destination in contemporary society as we contemplate consequences and seek solutions for this problem.
Delving into the history of global warming is a shocking revelation in itself. Sardonically, even though this issue is not something new, people still choose to remain oblivious to its existence. Global warming began approximately 18, 000 years ago as the Earth emerged from the Pleistocene Ice Age. Scientific data, after analysis of ocean sediments and ice cores indicates that a warm period of approximately 15,000 to 20, 000 years separate two ice ages. However, even though we dwell in an interglacial period, the truth is that we are closer to its end, than its beginning, and the rapid rate of climate change is bringing us closer to this tipping point.
Realization of this has dawned on us and more concrete action has been taken, not more than a decade ago. The two major landmarks with respect to human efforts in Climate Change are the United Nations Framework for Climate Change (UNFCCC), set into force on 21st March, 1994 and the Kyoto Protocol, which came into effect on 16th February, 2005. Adopted in 1992, the UNFCCC chalked out a plan of action to “stabilize the concentration of Green house gases in the atmosphere”, and also prevent the growth in human stimulated actions that might have dangerous consequences on the equilibrium of the atmosphere. Three years after the enforcement of the UNFCCC, a historic landmark was achieved at the Third Conference of Parties, held in Kyoto, Japan when “the delegates agreed to a Protocol to the UNFCCC that commits developed countries and countries making the evolution to a market economy to achieve calculated targets for decreasing their emissions of greenhouse gases.” On the 2nd of February, 2007, six years after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its first major report in 2001, the IPCC has concluded that various advancements in climate modeling have given scientists “a very high confidence” in their understanding of human involvement in Global warming. At the first major global assessment of climate change in these six years, the IPCC has concluded that the changes in the atmosphere, the oceans and glaciers, and the ice caps are clearly evident that the Earth is warming up. The question that now arises is what took the people such a long time to be awoken from their slumber of ignorance? Why is it that the whole world seems to be so worried about this phenomenon, after years of ignoring its existence?
The answer to all these questions lies in the urgency to resolve the situation, because the consequences associated with it could change the way the Earth looks today beyond imagination. Statistics indicate that the temperature would have increased between 1 to 3.5 o Celsius, as well as a 15 to 90 centimeter rise in sea levels would have taken place around the world, by the end of the 21st century. These statistics are not mere numbers, but they further re enforce how petrifying the impacts of Global warming and climate change could be. The impact of Global warming has influenced the world as a whole. Yet its maximum impact has been on agriculture, weather trends, sea level rise, human life, forests and wildlife and marine life.
Sharp fall in grain yields in the prairies region of North America, failure of Anchovy fisheries in South America as well as decline in quality of rice crop in Southern and South East Asia are evident of the effect of climate change on agriculture. With these regions becoming drier than before, the quality and quantity of the yield has also degraded. Climate change shall affect agriculture by directly affecting temperature and humidity, and indirectly by affecting “soil quality, pest levels and diseases. The effect of global warming on temperature would be faster, shorter and earlier growing seasons, range moving north and to higher altitudes, as well as an increased level of evapo transpiration.” Global warming will also culminate into soil water deficits, leading to dry soils becoming drier. With changes in temperature, opportunities for pests such as the Grasshopper to complete more reproductive cycles would increase, causing subsequent increase in their population.
One of the taglines for the movie, “The Day after Tomorrow,” released in May, 2001 was Whoever said "Tomorrow is another day"... didn't check the weather . With the current trends of global warming it is but obvious that the weather shall also change rather drastically with the increase in global temperatures. Rising heat would lead to evaporation of more water from water bodies, and also expand the air causing its saturation to increase. This could affect precipitation cycles around the world. Various cyclones and storms have been attributed to this phenomenon of climate change. An article in Time Magazine dated 29th August, 2005 by Jeffrey Kluger suggested a link between the occurrences of Hurricanes and was very aptly titled, Is Global Warming Fueling Katrina? The most interesting aspect of the article is how it implies that based on the current global warming model indicates that the next hurricanes could make “Katrina look mild”, which only goes on to prove how apocalyptic this may be.
A possible consequence of global warming would also be disruption of the Gulf Stream, and subsequently the entire “conveyor belt” of Ocean currents. Without the Gulf Stream, and its two northern branches, the Canary current and the North Atlantic drift, conditions in Britain would become like Siberia, which shares the same latitude. Global warming could directly affect the current thermohaline circulation (THC) of water that occurs around the globe. The THC refers to the density charged circulation of ocean waters. An integral part of the THC is the sinking of the North Atlantic Ocean, which is more saline due to the warm water brought by thermohaline circulation from the tropical and South Atlantic. Due to this salinity, the water in the North Atlantic becomes denser and sinks. However, as a consequence of Global warming, melting of the glaciers and polar Ice caps could lead to accumulation of a greater quantity of fresh water in the North Atlantic, decreasing of its density and subsequent disturbance of the North Atlantic drift. This would adversely affect weather patterns throughout Europe, and eventually the whole world since the North Atlantic can be compared to the pump for the conveyor belt of Global Ocean currents, as referred to in the film, “An Inconvenient Truth.”
Another aspect of the weather that can be linked to the phenomenon of Global Warming is the occurrence of the El Niño (Spanish, The Child), which though initially was considered to be regional event, has in the past half century been recognized to affect global weather patterns. The equatorial Pacific waters off the western coast of South America are distinctly colder with temperatures, which are normally colder than other regions in the same latitudinal zone. This cold current of water extends to the Equator before turning west. However, each year a warming of this region occurs, for a period of just four to five weeks around Christmas, when this cold current is replaced by warmer water. This phenomenon called the El Niño, and every 2 to 7 years, its effect is warmer and more distinct, affecting atmospheric surface patterns. In the opinion of Kevin Trenberth, Head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the phenomenon of the El Nino may be like a safety valve to release the excess heat from the Earth, when ocean current systems and weather patterns are unable to get rid of the surplus heat pumped into the tropical oceans. Statistics also support this stand. In the words of Trenberth, since 1976 we have had 7 major El Niños, though on the basis of scientific analysis that traces back to 120 years, only five were expected. This may suggest the occurrence of a natural cycle to counter act the rising temperatures around the world.
Moving on from agricultural and weather related effects, one of the most terrible outcomes of Global warming, as can be seen would be the rise in se levels around the world. Glaciologists predict that the Ice sheets of Greenland would begin melting if the temperature in that region rose by 3o C, a value that scientists feel is close to attainment in the next 100 years. Studies done by the Geological Survey of India have revealed that, on average, glaciers in India have been receding at the rate of about 15 meters (about 50 feet) every year. A major part of the Himalayas lies in India, and this melting of Himalayan ice could lead to intense flooding in the Himalayas as mountainous lakes would overflow due to accumulation of water. An article dated September 23, 2003 in the National Geographic Adventure by Andrea Minarcek, states, “It's uncertain whether there is enough time to salvage the glaciers before they disappear altogether, but hordes of scientists are willing to try”, with reference to the melting Glaciers of Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania. The Himalayas and Kilimanjaro are not the only part of the world facing this crisis. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Melting Third report Assessment, melting of the ice caps of West Antarctica and Greenland could culminate into the rise of sea levels by 20mm and 90mm per year, respectively. The rise in Sea levels would drastically lead to populations living close to the coast. For instance, populations in Bangladesh and Egypt, on the banks of the Nile would have to migrate away from the coasting.
Global warming also poses a direct threat to existing ecosystems around the world, threatening the biodiversity in various regions of the Earth. In a report in The Independent (London) dated August 1, 2001, Geoffrey Lean and Robert Mendick have suggested how the populations of mink whales have receded due to contractions in the Antarctic ice. Another rather interesting consequence of Global Warming is the migration of stinging Jellyfish to the Mediterranean region, and the Great White Shark further northwards in the region around the United Kingdom, which implies that people who love beaches shall now have more to worry about than just the heat or crabs!!! Over the past half century, the number of Emperor Penguins in the Antarctic has dwindled due to their extreme susceptibility to Climate change. Likewise in the Arctic too, Polar Bears are struggling with a rapid decline in their habitat. These are just few of the species that are on the verge of annihilation.
Let us now move on to the species that is perhaps the most selfish... Homo sapiens or in simpler words, Humans. Human tendency causes acceptance of ideas that pertain only to themselves. Who cares about Penguins dying or Polar bears swimming frantically in search of a home? What is even more amazing is that Mosquitoes have been proved to have adapted to climate change, which is probably the “first documented case of genetic evolution” with respect to Global Warming. Climatic changes will have wide-ranging harmful effects including increase in heat-related mortality, dehydration, spread of infectious diseases, and malnutrition. Due to warmer conditions, heat related health issues, such as severity of heat waves would increase, as would the problems for patients suffering from respiratory or cardiovascular diseases. Is this the gift mankind would like to bestow on future generations?
Global warming is a deep rooted problem that has existed ever since the Earth shattered its way out of the Pleistocene ice age. However, the magnitude and the rise are clearly unprecedented. The major causes for this environmental crisis can be divided into the continental drift, Green house gases, volcanoes, the Earth’s tilt, and above all, the Human factor.
Fossils found in Antarctica reveal that “Antarctica was at one time part of an ancient, considerably larger land mass, referred to by geologists as Gondwanaland.” They have also suggested that Antarctica was in fact part of a region close to the Equator with tropical climate. If a map of the world today is observed, all the continents seem to fit together like this perfect jigsaw puzzle. The continents started drifting away from each other during the Triassic era. The effects of this continental drift led to change in the position of physical features as well as water bodies, thus affecting the climate of the world. Even today, the Himalayas continue to rise by 1mm every year caused due to plate tectonics by which the Deccan plateau in India is moving towards the Tibetan Plateau.
Green house gases, including Carbon dioxide, Methane and Nitrous oxide when accumulated in the atmosphere, form a blanketing layer in the atmosphere preventing the return of the Sun’s incoming infrared radiations back into space. This trapped incoming solar radiation is the most major cause behind global warming. Changes in land use pattern, deforestation, land clearing, agriculture, and other activities have all led to a rise in the emission of carbon dioxide. Methane is evolved from paddy fields used to cultivate rice, as well as during the cud chewing process of ruminants like cows, buffaloes and horses. Methane is also emitted from waste dumps and land fills, and the processes of oil drilling, coal mining, and leaking Gas pipelines. Release of Nitrous oxide is primarily attributed to fertilizer usage.
Volcanoes are perhaps more dangerous than the BOOM and BLAST we associate them with! When a volcano erupts, it ejects large quantities of Sulfur dioxide, water vapor and ash into the atmosphere. Massive quantities of sulfur dioxide can reach the upper levels of the atmosphere in the Stratosphere. Mount Pinatoba, in the Philippine islands erupted in April 1991 emitting thousands of tonnes of gases into the atmosphere. Volcanic eruptions of this magnitude can reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface, lowering temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere (called the troposphere), and changing atmospheric circulation patterns.
The Axis of the Earth is inclined at an angle of 23.5 o C to the perpendicular plane of the orbital path of revolution of the Earth around the sun. Due to this inclination, while one hemisphere of the Earth faces the Sun, another half does not. A disturbance of this tilt could cause severity in weather. An increase in the tilt would cause warmer summers and colder winters, while a decrease would lead to cooler summers and milder winters. However, like the changing conditions in environment even the tilt of our axis changes at the rate of approximately half a degree for every hundred years. This process called precession is responsible for changes in climate.
The causes mentioned above were probably part of Nature’s grand plan to maintain a state of complete equilibrium in the existence of the Earth, which would have led to an extremely gradual increase in temperatures around the world. However, one creation, one evolution changed this whole phenomenon and threw the Earth off balance. You guessed right….Human beings. Yes, the truth is the Human factor has been most significant in the spread of Global warming to the limits it has attained. How many times have you forgotten to switch off the lights or fan in your room? What are the occasions when you have wasted an entire sheet of paper? Have you ever said no to the use of Plastic? If we think about the answers to these questions, we realize how shameful our acts of selfishness are. Electricity is definitely an integral part of living in urban society. The source of electrical power is primarily the combustion of fossil fuels, such as coal. Various automobiles are also run on petrol or diesel, which are obtained from fossil fuels. This combustion leads to large quantities of Green House Gases, including Carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere. Paper is something we always tend to take for granted, forgetting how many trees are slashed down and brought down in one day. Even though we are aware that Plastics are non bio degradable substances we continue to indulge ourselves in their use. With the explosion in today’s population, many more mouths need to be fed. This implies an increase in the amount of food needed. For this purpose, high yielding varieties of crops are used. Feeding food to the deprived is an excellent and noble idea. However is it justified to do so at the expense of the existence of Planet Earth? Numerous pesticides are used to cultivate such high yielding varieties of crops, once again leading to emissions of green house gases, such as Nitrous oxide, both, from the fields, as well as the factories producing such fertilizers. Even though the Industrial Revolution is considered to have brought us on a progressive path, in reality it has been detrimental to our progress sending us back in time to the Ice ages. Increases in industrialization have culminated into release of large amounts of Green house gases, air pollution, increasing concentrations of air borne particles, and land alterations.
After having examined both, the causes and consequences we can see how we are not away from attaining that tipping point, when the human race would again be sent back to primitive times, with the whole world painted white with a sheet of ice. As we see time running out of our hands, we have to find certain solutions to lessen, if not completely redeem us from this crisis. At the most, we could reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, cut down consumerism, stop deforestation and finally, use more eco friendly agricultural methods. Using non conventional, renewable sources of energy would definitely help in reducing the quantity of fossil fuels used. This would also help in conserving our already depleted sources of fossil fuels. Vehicles should be run on cleaner technologies, as well as strict emission laws should be implemented on the transport sector. Forests are extremely essential since they reduce the amount of green house gases in the atmosphere by utilizing them for various metabolic processes. For instance, Carbon dioxide is utilized for photosynthesis. Therefore, reforestation should be prioritized. Coral reefs, considered by some to be the “forests of the oceans” are the sinks for Carbon dioxide in the oceans. Phytoplankton, which are abundant in regions where cold water currents meet warmer water currents photosynthesize by utilizing Carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and in doing so incorporate it into the marine ecosystems. Therefore, ideas to utilize the oceans as a source of Carbon dioxide are being studied. One possibility would be transferring the Carbon dioxide to large containers using pipelines that could extract it from focal points. Another option is to add more nutrients to the oceans to enhance the growth of phytoplankton, which would also reduce the amount of Carbon dioxide, present in the air. Biotechnology can be used to decrease the water requirement of crops, to increase crop yield as well as reduce the use of fertilizers and pesticides. Special genetic strains of rice are being developed that would require lesser amounts of water, as well as evolve lower quantities of methane.
In retrospect, all the aspects mentioned above are direct scientific observations or procedures that verify the existence and severity of Global warming. However, rather than science telling us what to do, what is more necessary is to let our conscience guide us. Global warming has arisen from man’s insatiable greed and his selfishness. His awareness of this crisis has been a recent developed. While the scientific world unanimously agreed and tried to persuade people to accept the issue and attempt to rectify it, we chose to remain oblivious to it, and continued with our march to industrialization and depletion of natural resources. Let us now extrapolate into what possible consequences of global warming could be.
Imagine a massive flood after the melting of Antarctica and all the ice. The entire world consumed by this water, a tsunami beyond man’s worst nightmare. Even the tallest structures in the world, whether it is the Petronas Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia or the Sears Tower at Chicago. Soon, only vast expanses of ice would exist. No gurgling rivers or gushing streams, only frozen land and water! Any iota of greenery would be obliterated, and like Eskimos and caribous in today’s world, one would have to depend on lichens and mosses as a source of nutrition. All those lavish restaurants with exotic Chinese and Thai menus would disappear, as would the big “M” in today’s world. Terrorism would be ended for good, as would the muckiness and corruption of politics. The only profession available would be hunting, or probably, fishing (if the diverse varieties of fish sustain themselves). Mammoths vanished long ago. Probably now, humans may even get the opportunity to tread on the path of mammoths with the evolution of elephants to adapt to this change in their environment. It would be fun to experience to star in a live version of Ice Age and actually interact with saber toothed tigers, though I doubt any human would survive after such an encounter. Some descendant of Darwin would discover a new theory of Devolution by which one shall be reduced to the levels one has evolved from, with tigers becoming smilodons, elephants becoming mammoths and….humans?
This big question mark is not far. Very soon you would have Nature reading Man’s eulogy. “Born about 200, 000 years ago, the last specimen died on the ‘11th of September, 2500’.” This would definitely be an interesting headline. The only case of ambiguousness is whether the day is as far as 2500, or closer than we can think of. Article 2 of the Kyoto Protocol states “Each Party included in Annex I, in achieving its quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments under Article 3, in order to promote sustainable development, shall…” These words may seem to be an example of an excellent English paper. However, their meaning and significance is deeper and more thought provoking. We need to awake from an age old slumber that may soon morph into a permanent hibernation, since well, winter would be here to stay forever! The Apocalypse is approaching. The choice rests with us, and we have to act NOW, today, and from this very moment.
Sources and References:
Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
“An Inconvenient Truth” (2004), directed by Davis Guggenheim and starring Al Gore, former Vice President and Presidential candidate (2000) of the United States of America (Film)
“The Day after Tomorrow” (2004) directed by Ronald Emmerich (Film)
“Ice Age,” (2002) directed by Chris Wedge and Carlos Saldanha (Film)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation#Formation_.26_movement_of_the_deep_water_masses_at_North_Atlantic_Ocean
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12/1206_041206_global_warming.html
http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=499&ArticleID=5506&l=en
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/01/0112_060112_frog_climate.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/04/0408_040408_greenlandicemelt.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/05/0501_020502_himalaya.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/0801_wirewhales2.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/08/0812_030812_greatwhite.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/05/0509_penguindecline.html
http://www.globalissues.org/EnvIssues/GlobalWarming.asp
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/global_warming.html
http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFossils/ice_ages.html
http://edugreen.teri.res.in/explore/climate/climate.htm
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/items/2877.php
http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/crc/ecarbon/history.htm
http://www.ecifm.rdg.ac.uk/climate_change.htm
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1099102,00.html
http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/05/10/gulfstream/index.html
http://www.thewe.cc/weplanet/poles/thermohaline_circulation.htm
http://www.thirteen.org/savageseas/weather-side-elnino.html
http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/elnino/crwhatis.html
http://www.esi-topics.com/gwarm/interviews/DrKevinTrenberth.html
http://www.antarcticconnection.com/antarctic/science/geology.shtml
http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/f101.asp
http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/policy/climate_change_position.html
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